Iron ore futures rose more than 4%, temporarily does not have the conditions for a big drop

Since May, the steel market has risen sharply, and the prices of various steel products have set historical records. However, the callback after the big rise has begun to appear, especially on the raw and fuel side. On May 13, iron ore futures prices fell by more than 7%, only one step away from the limit. How long this unstable situation can last is still unknown.

　　 At present, it seems that in the short term, even in June, steel prices will still slightly pull back. It is expected that the steel market will show a trend of "supply reduction and demand growth" within the year, and will not change the high-level operation trend. A new year-round price high may still occur in the second half of the year.

Iron ore futures soared more than 4%

　　 On May 18, the main iron ore futures contract rose 5.5% to 1,256 yuan per ton. The contract finally closed at 1242.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.32%.

The rapid rise of steel prices, the high profits of steel mills, and the high level of high-level attention to commodity price increases all made the market suspicious of the policy of suppressing production. At the same time, the average daily output of crude steel in April announced by the Bureau of Statistics yesterday hit a record high. , Iron ore demand is still expected to be biased. The main contract has continued to rise since the night trading, reaching a peak of 1256 yuan/wet ton in the morning, rebounding in the afternoon after falling, and finally closing 4.32% higher at 1242.5 yuan/ton, with no changes in volume and warehousing. Big.

Recently, the State Council and many ministries and commissions have expressed strong concern about the price increase of bulk commodities, as well as the high profit of steel rolling and the excessively rising steel price, which have caused the market to doubt whether the subsequent effective implementation of the production suppression policy can be effectively implemented. Empty profit traders There has been a clear performance in the past two days, and the performance of raw materials in the past two days is relatively strong. In the case that the policy cannot be effectively falsified, the price of iron ore fluctuates sharply, and the market investment sentiment is extremely unstable.

　　 However, the National Development and Reform Commission held a regular press conference in May on the 18th. At the meeting, it was stated that the National Development and Reform Commission is currently preparing an action plan for peaking carbon emissions by 2030, and will form an on-site inspection team to carry out a "look back" on-site inspection of steel reduction capacity. In terms of supply, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will increase the exploration and development of iron ore resources and accelerate the construction of new domestic iron ore projects and ongoing projects. Currently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of Market Supervision are jointly investigating market conditions such as steel and iron ore to strengthen market supervision. The price of iron ore is still suppressed.

　　 will increase the exploration and development of iron ore resources, and accelerate the construction of new domestic iron ore projects and ongoing projects. Regarding the issue of guaranteeing the supply of iron ore, we will make full use of both domestic and international markets.

　　 From a domestic perspective, we will intensify the exploration and development of iron ore resources, accelerate the construction of new domestic iron ore projects and ongoing resource continuation projects, coordinate the recycling and utilization of social recycled steel resources, and improve domestic resource security capabilities.

On the international front, play the role of the main body of enterprises, encourage qualified enterprises to actively and steadily develop overseas iron ore resources; improve the diversified import supply system, encourage enterprises to expand iron ore import channels, and orderly promote the import of overseas recycled steel raw materials and resource utilization, and optimize Supply structure.

At present, all localities are focusing on self-inspection and self-correction around the exit of production capacity, project construction, implementation of previous inspections and rectifications, reporting and verification, etc., and will report to the Inter-Ministerial Joint Conference Office for the Iron and Steel Industry to resolve excess capacity and overcome difficulties before May 30 Self-examination and self-correction. In the next step, the member units of the inter-ministerial joint meeting will lead teams to form several on-site inspection teams to carry out "look back" on-site inspections of steel reduction.

　　 At present, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Supervision are jointly investigating the market conditions of steel and iron ore to further understand the industry dynamics. In the next step, we will continue to work with relevant departments to continuously strengthen monitoring and early warning, strengthen market supervision, and take targeted measures to effectively maintain market stability.

The price of iron ore does not currently have the conditions for a sharp drop

In terms of iron ore, global iron ore supply is expected to increase by 110 million tons. Among them, the output of Brazilian and Australian mines will increase by 25.44 million tons, and the output of non-mainstream mines will increase by 50 million tons. It is expected that domestic iron ore demand will be reduced by 33 million tons this year under the superimposed influence of the "dual carbon" policy, the "dual control" policy of capacity and output, and the environmental protection production restriction policy. However, considering that the iron ore supply side is relatively concentrated and its financial attributes are strong, it is expected that its price does not have the conditions for a sharp decline for the time being. In the long run, iron ore prices will show a resistive downward trend.