Rising raw material costs boosted "black series" futures prices generally rose
Recently, the futures prices of "ferrous metals" represented by iron ore and rebar have risen sharply. On April 26, the main iron ore contract 2109 rose to a maximum of 1166 yuan/ton, and closed up 4.33% on the same day, setting a new high again; the main contract 2110 for rebar and the main contract 2110 for hot-rolling also increased by more than 4%, and set a recent record. new highs. Looking at the overall trend of related major contracts, the price of hot coils has risen by about 30% compared to the beginning of the year, and the prices of iron ore and rebar have also risen by more than 20%.
The increase in ferrous metal futures prices is not unrelated to demand growth. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of major products in the steel, non-ferrous, petrochemical and other industries have continued the upward trend at the end of last year, and non-ferrous prices have risen quite sharply.
The price of raw materials has risen sharply due to the following reasons: First, the rising cost of raw materials has promoted the general increase in the price of bulk commodities; Second, the recovery of downstream industry production has formed a tight supply and demand situation; Third, the financial attributes such as non-ferrous metals and some chemical products are prominent. Loose monetary policy and better global economic expectations have boosted the activity of global futures trading, and short-term speculation in the financial market also has a significant amplifying effect on price increases.
With the gradual recovery of the global economy, the demand for steel will continue to grow, and the increase in steel demand will surely drive the growth of iron ore demand. Data show that in the first quarter, the country produced 271 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%; produced 221 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%; produced 329 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%.
At this stage, the profit of steel mills continues to expand, and the demand for high-grade ore is increasing, which supports the price of iron ore; the main driver of the price of rebar is demand and production restrictions. Demand continues to improve in the context of peak seasons.
As for the follow-up trend of the "black line", domestic demand is currently high, and overseas demand is also rising, and iron ore prices are still running at a high level. However, with the end of overseas resumption of production, the later marginal drive will be insufficient.
Regarding the trend of steel bars such as rebar and hot coils, the current market is facing negative factors such as weaker economic expansion expectations and enhanced policy control expectations. If only driven by domestic demand, the later price upward space will be relatively limited, and the supply-side production restriction policy will be implemented. Strictness, rising costs, and the surge in overseas markets have brought some support. Positive and negative factors are intertwined, the uncertainty of the steel market has increased, and the momentum for continued sharp rises is weak, and the trend may remain high in the short term.
In the next step, we will work with relevant departments to actively take measures to stabilize raw material prices: first, strengthen operation monitoring and price supervision, stabilize market expectations, release operating conditions in a timely manner, conduct public opinion guidance, and prevent panic buying or stockpiling in the market. Cooperate with relevant departments to resolutely crack down on illegal activities such as monopolistic market and malicious speculation; second, support upstream and downstream enterprises to establish long-term and stable cooperative relations, coordinately respond to market price fluctuation risks, and encourage smelting and processing enterprises to conduct futures hedging transactions.