The price of spiral pipe has been rising for several months, when will it enter the turning point?
At present, for many operators, especially manufacturing enterprises, the increase in spiral tube prices has been plagued by the current business situation. And the future business is full of uncertainties. Then, when will the spiral tube rise to enter the turning point, we can analyze from the following aspects:
1. The current situation of rising steel prices
At the same time, relevant data showed that as of May 7, the composite steel price index was 215.9 points, an increase of 58.3% over the same period last year. After the "May 1st" festival, the super "Iron Man" once again exerted its strength, and steel mills got together to raise the ex-factory price of steel.
As of May 8, steel prices have maintained a continuous daily increase. Data shows that the average price of Ф25mm grade 3 rebar in key domestic cities is 5,661 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton from May 7. Looking back at the price changes since May, the above-mentioned steel prices have achieved "three consecutive rises", with a cumulative increase of 452 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.68%, compared with the historical high of 5897 yuan/ton on May 13, 2008. The difference is 236 yuan/ton. At the same time, the monitoring data on May 8 showed that the price of hot-rolled coils on that day was 6,118 yuan/ton, breaking through the highest price in 2008.
During the continuous rise of steel products this year, there has been almost no turning point, but a continuous rise, only the size of the rise has changed slightly. It has been refreshing all-time highs. Moreover, judging from the current development situation, there is no sign of turning point.
2. What causes the price to continue to rise
At present, spiral pipes continue to increase in volume, mainly due to the following three reasons.
1. The increase in raw material prices
The rise of raw materials after the Spring Festival, the source of steel is iron ore, which is the form of iron (Fe) in nature. Pure iron does not exist in nature. At the same time, the rise of basic production materials such as coal and oil also caused the increase in the manufacturing cost of steel, which led to the continuous increase in the price of spiral pipes.
2. The rise of imported materials such as iron ore
Another reason for the recent increase is that China-Australia relations are strained, resulting in a shortage of mainly imported raw materials, iron ore, and a large price increase.
According to monitoring data, as of May 7, the price of 61.5% PB Australian fines in Rizhao Port was 1,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from April 30 before the holiday. On the same day, the Platts 62% iron ore index rose by 152.7% in the past year, and the quotation reached US$212.75/ton, an increase of 4.98% from May 6th, and on May 6th Platts 62% iron ore broke for the first time in history. 200 dollars.
3. Artificial hype factor
In addition to the above factors, due to the influence of supply and demand, there will be some big capital speculation by taking advantage of the timing of price increases. This is caused by human factors. That is to say, in this price increase wave, some people will think it is an opportunity to make money. But according to the current situation, the proportion of artificial speculation is very small.
3. When will steel prices enter the turning point?
When will the spiral tube price enter the turning point? It can be analyzed from the following aspects:
1. In the short term, it is easy to rise, but difficult to fall
Judging from the current market trends, the current increase in steel prices is not a periodical increase. In the short term, there will still be situations where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall. This also means that the inflection point that everyone expects is difficult to appear in the short term.
2. The growth rate slows down
Although within a certain period of time, it will be easy to rise and difficult to fall, but a substantial rise is no longer possible. There will be situations where the growth rate will start to slow down. The reason why the growth rate will slow down is mainly due to the two reasons we will discuss below.
3. Regulation of national policies
Due to the tension between China and Australia, the price of imported raw material iron ore has risen greatly. The country will also issue a response policy. For example, adjusting tariff policies and guiding export markets to turn domestically. Through policy control, the rate of increase can be suppressed to a certain extent at a certain stage.
4. The downstream manufacturing industry is unbearable and continues to rise
The price of spiral pipe may have an inflection point. Another important factor is that the current rise in raw materials such as steel has made it unbearable for many related downstream manufacturers. Therefore, it is difficult to continue to rise sharply in the later period.
Summary: As the price of spiral pipe continues to rise, how long will it take to usher in the turning point? We believe that it should be analyzed from the following four aspects: it is easy to rise in the short term, but it is difficult to fall. The growth rate has slowed down. Regulation of national policies. The downstream manufacturing industry cannot afford to continue to rise. Analyzing from the above four perspectives, the turning point of the rise of steel may not be far away.