The steel price roller coaster reveals the two driving forces behind it! Will continue to grow substantially? Analyst: Difficult!
Since May, the rise in commodity prices has caused market focus. Among them, the continuous surge in steel prices has attracted much attention. How much did the price of steel go up? What caused the increase in steel prices? What will happen to steel prices in the future? We will explore their answers one by one.
What is the future trend of steel prices?
The China Iron and Steel Association said that since May, due to the increase in market expectations, the price increase of steel products has further increased after the "May Day" holiday, but it has fallen sharply in the third week. Looking forward to the market outlook, from the supply side, steel production capacity reduction, "looking back", crude steel output reduction, and environmental supervision are about to start, and crude steel output will hardly increase significantly in the later period. From the demand side, due to the rapid and large increase in steel prices since April, the downstream steel industries such as shipbuilding and home appliances cannot withstand the continuous high consolidation of steel prices, and the later steel prices cannot continue to rise sharply.
The macro-research team of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that the "price-stabilizing" policy is being exerted, and it is necessary to avoid the impact of rapid price increases on the sound recovery pattern of consumption upgrades. The prices of bulk commodities such as coal and steel have risen too fast recently, and have deviated from the fundamentals of supply and demand to a certain extent. It is expected that the inflation of industrial products is expected to gradually slow down in the third quarter.
Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that when global liquidity does not have the conditions for rapid tightening, taking into account the large-scale fiscal stimulus and infrastructure plans in the United States, the balance sheets of its financial institutions and households have been restored to a better state, and domestic Due to various factors such as the steady economic recovery, the high degree of dependence on foreign sources of energy and minerals, and the limited production of ferrous metals, the prices of bulk commodities may still have some room to rise in the short term. Xie Yaxuan also said that if the main cause of inflation is not the rising domestic demand, monetary policy should maintain "flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate" continuity, and the cost-side pressure of enterprises may be supported by the supply of energy and minerals and the supply of ferrous metals.
The Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that bulk commodities may continue to rise throughout the year, but they will "relax" in the short term because the control policies will be effective. With reference to the last round of supply-side reforms, in April 2016, the exchange raised the margin ratio and increased transaction fees; the National Development and Reform Commission interviewed coal companies to limit arbitrary price increases. Corresponding to the recent introduction of similar measures, such as interviews with major steel companies in Tangshan, and increased coal import quotas to ease the pressure of mismatch between supply and demand. After the introduction of the last round of policies, commodities peaked in April 2016, and it was not until October that year that they broke away from the shock range and achieved a breakthrough.
Hou Jun, president of the Huatai Futures Research Institute, said that the current domestic pressure for stable growth has eased, and the recent government has launched a series of restraint policies, and the commodity market may be divided in the future.