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At present, the international steel market is still showing a downward trend in supply. According to the statistics of the World Iron and Steel Association, in January 2023, the crude steel output of 63 countries included in the statistics of the World Iron and Steel Association was 145.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; The crude steel production in the Middle East was 3.8 million tons, up 19.7% year-on-year; Other regions have decreased.
The decline in output outside China is still large. According to relevant data, in January 2023, the output of other regions of the world outside China was 65.8 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons over the previous month, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, and a decrease of 3.2 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, steel production in the European Union and other European countries is still greatly constrained; The crude steel output of the European Union (27 countries) was 10.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%; Other European countries produced 3.3 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%. At the same time, the crude steel output of Russia and other CIS countries+Ukraine was 6.5 million tons, down 24.9% year on year.
China's steel export price advantage has been strengthened
In the past two months, the export prices of overseas and Chinese hot coils have continued to rise, but due to the relatively low increase in China's export quotation, China's steel export price advantage has gradually become apparent. According to relevant reports, as of March 6, 2023, the export quotation (FOB) of India, Türkiye and CIS for hot rolled coils is 725 dollars/ton, 825 dollars/ton and 730 dollars/ton respectively, while the export quotation (FOB) of China for hot rolled coils is 660 dollars/ton, up 125 dollars/ton, 150 dollars/ton, 130 dollars/ton and 65 dollars/ton respectively from the end of last year; At present, China's export quotation of hot coils is 65 dollars/ton, 165 dollars/ton and 70 dollars/ton lower than that of India, Türkiye and the Commonwealth of Independent States, respectively.
The export order index of China's steel industry has rebounded
From the perspective of export orders, due to the further decline of overseas steel production, China's steel export order index has rebounded, and the rebound of export orders will form a certain pull on China's steel exports in the short term.
Steel exports in the later stage may still maintain a year-on-year growth trend
China's steel exports have maintained a year-on-year upward trend for 10 consecutive months. At present, China's steel export price advantage has gradually strengthened. While the overseas steel supply is still weak, China's steel export order index shows a rebound trend
In terms of imports, the current domestic manufacturing industry has further improved its outlook. Although the demand for steel has gradually increased, driven by the gradual enhancement of China's high-end steel import substitution capacity, China's steel import volume may remain at a low level in the later stage.
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